Indonesia’s Trade Surplus Shrinks to Five-Year Low in April 2025

A Dramatic Shift in Trade Balance

In April 2025, Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of just USD 160 million, marking the narrowest surplus since April 2020—an abrupt drop from USD 4.33 billion in March. This decline was driven not by falling exports, but by a surge in imports.

• Exports grew by 5.76% year-on-year, totaling USD 20.74 billion, led by manufacturing and non-oil/gas sectors.

• Imports skyrocketed by 21.84% YoY to USD 20.59 billion—driven largely by capital goods and pre-emptive restocking amid trade policy uncertainties.

What Caused the April Surplus Slump?

1. Import Surge in Machinery and Capital Goods
   Imports climbed sharply, fueled by demand for machinery and industrial equipment, particularly from China and Singapore .

2. Weakening Performance of Mining Exports
   Lower coal prices led to a significant drop in mining exports—reaching a three-year low which contributed to the relative stagnation in outbound shipments

3. Pre-emptive Stockpiling Ahead of U.S. Tariffs
   Indonesian firms anticipated U.S. tariff risks by restocking ahead of schedule, boosting import volumes—a strategic but temporary shift

4. Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Exports
   A 10% U.S. tariff on Indonesian goods triggered a drop in exports to the U.S.—from USD 2.6 billion to USD 2.08 billion in April

Economic & Policy Implications

• External Balance Under Pressure
  Though monthly surpluses continue, this sharp decline highlights Indonesia’s vulnerability to global trade dynamics and reliance on external demand.

• Central Bank Monetary Policy Room
  May inflation eased to 1.6%, within the Bank of Indonesia’s 1.5%–3.5% target, enabling flexible monetary policy, including rate cuts reuters.combps.go.id+1asianews.network+1.

• Reevaluation of Trade Strategy
  The volatility calls for better market diversification and supply chain resilience, especially in key export sectors like agriculture, minerals, and manufactured goods.

What This Means for Agricultural Exporters

For businesses exporting spices, coconut derivatives, cacao, and other agrarian products, this data suggests:

• Expand market reach beyond traditional partners like the U.S. and China.

• Accelerate certification and quality assurance efforts to compete in more resilient markets.

• Strengthen logistics and inland distribution systems to maintain efficiency amid external shocks.

Final Takeaway

Indonesia’s April 2025 trade data sends a clear signal: while overall economic fundamentals remain solid, volatile global conditions demand adaptive trade strategies. For exporters in agriculture and manufacturing, staying competitive means diversifying markets, reinforcing quality credentials, and maintaining flexible supply chains.

By embracing these insights, Indonesian exporters—like ourselves at PT Linggau Jaya Eksportir—position for sustainable growth, even amid global economic uncertainty.

📞 Contact Us
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